I had the pleasure in conversing with Tina Tamboer-Glatfelter with the Cromford Report on her take on the Scottsdale and Phoenix Real Estate Property marketplace forecast. For those who are that aren't familiar with the Cromford Report, it was created by Michael Orr. Michael Orr is a highly regarded Phoenix Real Estate Expert, and in my very humble opinion there's no much better resource available. I asked Tina some questions on the Scottsdale and Phoenix Real Estate Sector Forecast.
What do you feel the trend in appreciation will be in the following year?
The Cromford Report tends to avoid developing long term forecasts. Nevertheless with that being said, it is fair to expect bank inventory to keep falling and eventually diminishing to a non-threatening level in 2013. Without these mark down houses in the computations, median and standard sale rates normally surge. Also as investors follow the distressed inventory to other states, which will put regular customers back in the driver seat in many areas. Conventional customers requiring funding depend more on appraisals, which are very conservative and may lessen the appreciation fees as fewer cash purchasers will be active. We may see rates vary during the transition, but eventually recover to a sustainable appreciation rate.
What is the distinction in this development for lower end price points vs.increased end price points?
Prices are driven in part by demand. Entry level demand is affected more by employment, affordability and interest levels for example. Higher end demand might be affected more by commercial revenue and stock market performance. As past recoveries have trended, the lower end prices tend to recover first, then the more expensive follows one year after. If this trend is true for our recovery, then the entry level has been recuperating for around a year now and we need to start to see some alleviation for the more expensive in 2013.
We view low inventory for Scottsdale, do you find this pattern continuing?
We've started to see the inventory taking an upward turn as Scottsdale goes into a periodic decrease in demand, especially in the northern upscale residential areas. In the short term, I forecast we will see inventory in Scottsdale raise until "Buyer Season" begins in January.
What does this information suggest to you? If you are looking to purchase, anticipate prices to be upward, but inventory being greater over the next year--so more alternatives, more discussion power etc. If you are looking to sell, price ranges would be higher but you'll have less dealing power next year than you'd in this seller's market.
What do you feel the trend in appreciation will be in the following year?
The Cromford Report tends to avoid developing long term forecasts. Nevertheless with that being said, it is fair to expect bank inventory to keep falling and eventually diminishing to a non-threatening level in 2013. Without these mark down houses in the computations, median and standard sale rates normally surge. Also as investors follow the distressed inventory to other states, which will put regular customers back in the driver seat in many areas. Conventional customers requiring funding depend more on appraisals, which are very conservative and may lessen the appreciation fees as fewer cash purchasers will be active. We may see rates vary during the transition, but eventually recover to a sustainable appreciation rate.
What is the distinction in this development for lower end price points vs.increased end price points?
Prices are driven in part by demand. Entry level demand is affected more by employment, affordability and interest levels for example. Higher end demand might be affected more by commercial revenue and stock market performance. As past recoveries have trended, the lower end prices tend to recover first, then the more expensive follows one year after. If this trend is true for our recovery, then the entry level has been recuperating for around a year now and we need to start to see some alleviation for the more expensive in 2013.
We view low inventory for Scottsdale, do you find this pattern continuing?
We've started to see the inventory taking an upward turn as Scottsdale goes into a periodic decrease in demand, especially in the northern upscale residential areas. In the short term, I forecast we will see inventory in Scottsdale raise until "Buyer Season" begins in January.
What does this information suggest to you? If you are looking to purchase, anticipate prices to be upward, but inventory being greater over the next year--so more alternatives, more discussion power etc. If you are looking to sell, price ranges would be higher but you'll have less dealing power next year than you'd in this seller's market.
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Take a look at this post Scottsdale and Phoenix Real Estate Market Forecast or get in touch with Jen Wehner for more details about investing in property or home in Scottsdale.
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